Given concerns in the market about higher oil prices, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter?
The answer is no. During the month of July, analysts increased EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q3 for all the companies in the index) increased by 0.3% (to $88.95 from $88.67) from June 30 to July 30.
In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first month of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.0%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.3%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has also been 1.7%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.9%.
This marks the 2nd consecutive quarter and the 4th time in the past 5 quarters that the bottom-EPS estimate has increased during the first month of the quarter.
At the sector level, five of the eleven sectors witnessed an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2026 from June 30 to July 30, led by the Energy (+2.6%) and Financials (+1.7%) sectors. On the other hand, six sectors recorded a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2026 during this period, led by the Materials (-5.0%) sector.
Analysts also increased earnings estimates for the full year during the month of July. From June 30 through July 30, the CY 2026 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 3.2% (to $351.33 from $340.49).
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