A number of the companies in the “Magnificent 7” have been top contributors to year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 in recent quarters. How many companies in the “Magnificent 7” are expected to be among the top five contributors to earnings growth for the S&P 500 for the third quarter?
The answer is one. Overall, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q3 2025 is 8.5%. The top five contributors to year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 for Q3 (in order of contribution) are NVIDIA, Boeing, Eli Lilly, Intel, and Micron Technology. Thus, only one of the top five contributors to year-over-year earnings growth for the index for the third quarter is a “Magnificent 7” company. Boeing, Eli Lilly, and Intel are benefitting from easy comparisons to weaker earnings reported in the year-ago quarter due to charges and expenses that were included in their year-ago (non-GAAP) EPS.
In aggregate, the “Magnificent 7” companies are expected to report year-over-year earnings growth of 14.9% for the third quarter. Excluding these seven companies, the blended (combines actual and estimated results) earnings growth rate for the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 would be 6.7% for Q3 2025.
It is interesting to note that last quarter, analysts expected the “Magnificent 7” companies to report earnings growth of 13.9% for Q2 2025 at the start of the Q2 earnings season. However, the “Magnificent 7” companies reported actual earnings growth of 26.6% for Q2 2025, as all 7 companies reported positive EPS surprises for the quarter.
Looking ahead, analysts expect higher earnings growth for the “Magnificent 7” companies starting in Q2 2026. For Q4 2025 through Q3 2026, analysts are predicting earnings growth rates for these seven companies of 14.9%, 14.9%, 17.5%, and 19.7%, respectively. Analysts also expect higher earnings growth for the other 493 companies starting in Q1 2026. For Q4 2025 through Q3 2026, analysts are projecting earnings growth rates for these 493 companies of 5.0%, 11.0%, 11.4%, and 14.6%, respectively.
*Not in order of contribution
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