The consensus of P&C industry survey data confirms what two FactSet Insight reports flagged over a month ago: softening has built to consensus in the property lines, per Moody's Ratings. Casualty, per the Moody’s survey, still remains "more mixed". That's the finding from Moody's Annual Reinsurance Buyer Survey, released this week ahead of the January 2027 renewal. Two trade outlets corroborated both findings (Insurance Business/Reinsurance Business, Sept 2; Reinsurance News, Sept 1).
FactSet called the direction before the survey data was released. Our July 31 Insight report (Reinsurance Purchases Could Signal a Soft Market Ahead) argued Chubb's decision to buy more reinsurance was a clearer read on casualty rate inadequacy than its 83.8% combined ratio, which is backward-looking. CEO Evan Greenberg said Chubb was buying because "it irrationally makes sense to us to feed the hungry" in a soft market. Our August 7 follow-up (Stepped-Up Use of Reinsurance Emerges on 2Q Earnings Calls) expanded that to a four-carrier pattern—Chubb, Allstate, AFG, American Coastal—weeks before Moody's put a number on buyer sentiment.
This week's regional split builds on that signal. US buyers expect casualty increases; non-US buyers increasingly expect declines. On property, more than half of respondents expect greater aggregate-cover availability at January 2027 renewal, and roughly a quarter expect declining attachment points—the consensus FactSet's carrier-level thesis anticipated.
Realized rates are the hard-number confirmation. The Marsh Re (fka Guy Carpenter) Property Catastrophe Rate Index is down 16% cumulative through mid-year 2026 renewals, 23% off the 2024 peak—it's the steepest US annual decline since 2014, per CEO Dean Klisura. Property-cat only; no read-through to casualty. But three independent sources now agree on property's direction.
FactSet Statutory data summarized below is the next place to watch, and Allstate's baseline shows where an increase would have to show up. The table below sets the pre-layer starting point across the four entities relevant to Allstate's property book.
Sample source doc for Allstate Fire & Casualty Co. 2024 data, which is summarized in the table above
Company/Security - Underwriting - FactSet
The property call is now three-for-three: carrier behavior in July, realized rates through mid-year, and this week's survey. Casualty is still developing—regionally split, carrier-specific—and merits the same scrutiny FactSet gave property a month early.
Macro summary: Payrolls fell 23,000 in July, the first negative headline print of this cycle, following a downwardly revised 20,000 gain in June—a sharp deceleration from the +214,000/+179,000 pace seen in March-April. Job growth has now averaged roughly 61,000/month over the trailing 11 months, well below the ~150,000 breakeven rate most economists associate with a stable labor market.
Insurance earnings implications: For life/annuity carriers, a softening labor market slows group life and disability premium growth (fewer covered lives, slower payroll growth) but has limited, immediate impact. For P&C, weaker hiring modestly dampens exposure growth in commercial auto and workers' comp claims, though July's decline is not yet severe enough to signal a broader shift in claims-frequency.
Our Macro Tracker table below lists key economic data and the potential impact on insurance company earnings. The right-hand column identifies the specific, potential impacts on company earnings.
PPI (Producer Price Index): Producer prices for final demand were flat (0.0%) in July after falling 0.3% in June, with a 0.2% rise in services offsetting a 0.7% drop in goods; the 12-month unadjusted rate stands at 4.7%.
Earnings implications: A stalled pipeline-price read is a modestly favorable early signal for P&C loss severity (materials, parts, construction costs) if it holds, though the underlying 12-month rate remains elevated enough to warrant continued reserve caution.
Both indices eased slightly on September 2 after a volatile year that included two separate double-digit corrections (Nasdaq -13.4% bottoming March 30, -10.1% bottoming July 29); both remain within roughly 1% of their all-time highs.
Earnings implications: Elevated, near-record equity levels continue to support life carriers' variable annuity account values and AUM-linked fee income, and lift P&C investment portfolio marks; the repeated correction-and-recovery pattern remains a hedging-cost and volatility watch item for life carriers if it recurs.
ADP, August 2026 (private-sector employment): private payrolls rose 38,000, below the 47,000 consensus and down from an upwardly revised 46,000 in July—the slowest pace since January. Base pay growth held at 3.2% YoY. The data reinforces July's negative NFP surprise and raises the stakes on tomorrow's release.
Weekly Jobless Claims
Unemployment Rate
Earnings implications: A falling headline rate driven by labor-force exit rather than job creation is not a clean positive read-through for P&C exposure bases or life persistency. Keep in mind the positive headline number is driven by a shrinking labor pool rather than the creation of new jobs.
Nonfarm payrolls: Nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, the weakest print since early 2026 and well below the prior six-month average, even as revisions added a combined 93,000 jobs to March and April.
Nonfarm payrolls
Earnings implications: Slowing payroll growth softens the base for group life and voluntary benefits premiums (tied to covered payroll), while a smaller labor pool has limited near-term read-through for P&C personal lines exposure growth.
Initial claims fell to 203,000 for the week ending August 22, a decrease of 4,000 from the prior week's revised level, with the 4-week average holding at 205,500, and claims remaining comfortably below the 225,000 watch level all summer.
Weekly jobless claims
Earnings implications: Claims well below the watch level point to stable workers' compensation claim frequency for P&C carriers; this series otherwise functions as an early-warning indicator rather than a direct earnings driver for either segment this period.
The table directly below presents AUM roll forward data for PRU, EQH, and HIG from 2Q21 through 1Q26, individual company net change (as a percentage of beginning AUM), and S&P 500 quarterly price return. The pattern that emerges is both consistent and actionable: AUM balances follow S&P 500 returns.
Updated company AUM data for Equitable and Voya show increases in AUM. That result is expected given the equity market data we tracked throughout 2Q.
Equitable (up): Company/Security - Assets Under Management - EQH-US - FactSet
Hartford (drop): Company/Security - Assets Under Management - HIG-US
Principal (up): Company/Security - Operations by LOB - FactSet
Voya (up): Company/Security - Assets Under Management - FactSet
Manulife (up): Company/Security - Assets Under Management - FactSet
FactSet Insight blog: Read more insurance sector analysis in our previous blog articles.
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