Plans for expanding Canadian pipeline capacity have been in the headlines recently as production in the country continues to increase. Enbridge has announced up to 300 Mb/d in planned expansions by the end of the decade on its Mainline system and another 30 Mb/d or more in additional capacity on its Express Pipeline system (Line 40). In addition, Trans Mountain may be close to launching an open season to increase capacity by 5–10% in the near term, and further expansions could increase capacity by as much as 200–300 Mb/d by 2029.
These touted expansions will likely be required if crude production growth in Canada continues, as pipeline utilizations are already near or above 90%. Total Canadian production is up 66 Mb/d YoY in 2025 to average 5.2 MMb/d, with Alberta, which saw record production in July of 4.3 MMb/d, offsetting declines elsewhere.
Even with record crude production out of Alberta, utilizations on Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) have averaged 84% since its start, though the company’s CEO said the pipeline should run full by 2027/2028. At the same time, Keystone and Enbridge Mainline utilizations have averaged 93% and 95%, respectively, in the first half of 2025.
Among uncertainty around U.S. trade policy, there have been calls to diversify Canada’s export structure, which was one of the goals behind TMX. However, as seen in the graphic below (left), refineries along the U.S. West Coast have taken advantage of the increase in seaborne crude leaving Canada, with imports of Canadian crude in PADD 5 reaching a record high of 511 Mb/d in January 2025. PADD 5 imports of Canadian crude, however, have since come down to levels seen in previous years.
China also saw a surge in volumes coming from Canada, as exports to China reached record highs of 350 Mb/d in July 2025. This increase in Chinese imports of Canadian crude could also be due, in part, to Chinese imports of U.S. crude falling sharply since President Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, 2025.
The TMX project has provided support for Canadian crude prices with its exposure to the Brent market and commanding a greater netback than Enbridge Mainline or Keystone. The WCS discount to WTI has narrowed since TMX came online, averaging ($12.21/bbl) in 2025 vs. ($14.83/bbl) in 2024. Recently, this discount to WTI narrowed to almost ($10.00/bbl), as there was tightness in the U.S. sour crude market before imports of Venezuelan crude resumed in August.
BTU Analytics expects Canadian oil production to continue increasing through the end of the decade. Furthermore, with seasonal increases likely to push production to over 6 MMb/d towards the end of the decade, the need for additional pipeline capacity, whether through expansions to U.S.-bound pipelines or a further expansion of Trans Mountain, will be required. Though weaker crude pricing is expected for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, the return of supportive pricing towards the end of the decade, along with the proposed pipeline buildouts, creates upside risk to Canada’s production potential.
Be sure to check back in for more Energy Market Insights covering TMX and other Canadian pipelines, as BTU Analytics will continue to monitor the currently shifting U.S.-Canadian energy landscape.
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