The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of August 2024 is 2.6%.
If 2.6% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the smallest increase in the number since March 2021 (also 2.6%).
Last month (July 2024), the consumer price index increased by 2.9% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.0%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 6 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 2.6% is based on 16 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.10% to a high of 2.60%, for a spread of 50 bps. This spread is larger than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 31 bps and larger than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 49 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.2%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for August tomorrow (September 11).
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