The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of August 2025 is 2.9%.
If 2.9% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the highest number since January 2025 (3.0%). It will also be above the trailing 12-month average of 2.6%.
The July 2025 consumer price index increased by 2.7% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 2.8%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 2 months, matched the median estimate in 4 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 6 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 45% of the time, matched the median estimate 20% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 35% of the time.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.1%.
Tomorrow (September 11) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for August.
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