The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of December 2023 is 3.2%.
If 3.2% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the third consecutive month and the fifth time in the past seven months that the number has been 3.2% or lower.
Last month (November 2023), the consumer price index increased by 3.1% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.1%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 3 months, matched the median estimate in 3 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 6 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 50% of the time, matched the median estimate 17% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 3.2% is based on 12 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 3.10% to a high of 3.40%, for a spread of 30 bps. This spread is lower than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 55 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the high and low estimate 50 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.8%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for December tomorrow (January 11).
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