The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of December 2024 is 2.8%.
If 2.8% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the third consecutive month that the number has increased. However, it will still be below the trailing 12-month average of 3.0%.
The November 2024 consumer price index increased by 2.7% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 2.7%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched the median estimate in 3 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 48% of the time, matched the median estimate 20% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 32% of the time.
The median estimate of 2.8% is based on 8 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.80% to a high of 2.93%, for a spread of 13 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 24 bps and smaller than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 48 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.3%.
Tomorrow (January 15) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for December.
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