The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of January 2024 is 2.9%.
If 2.9% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the first month since March 2021 that the number has been below 3.0%.
Last month (December 2023), the consumer price index increased by 3.4% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.2%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 4 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 6 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 2.9% is based on 9 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.80% to a high of 3.00%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is lower than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 50 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 51 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.7%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for January tomorrow (February 13).
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