The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of June 2024 is 3.1%.
If 3.1% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the third consecutive decrease in the number since March 2024 (3.5%).
Last month (May 2024), the consumer price index increased by 3.3% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.4%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 6 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 53% of the time, matched the median estimate 17% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 30% of the time.
The median estimate of 3.1% is based on 13 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.70% to a high of 3.50%, for a spread of 80 bps. This spread is larger than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 34 bps and larger than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate of 49 bps. This month marks the largest spread between the low estimate and high estimate since June 2023 (100 bps).
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.4%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for June tomorrow (July 11).
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