The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of June 2025 is 2.6%.
If 2.6% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the highest number since February 2025 (2.8%) and also mark the second consecutive month in which the number has increased. However, it will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 2.7%.
The May 2025 consumer price index increased by 2.4% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 2.5%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 2 months, matched the median estimate in 3 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 47% of the time, matched the median estimate 20% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 2.6% is based on 11 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.30% to a high of 2.74%, for a spread of 44 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 29 bps but larger than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 41 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.0%.
Tomorrow (July 15) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for June.
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