The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of June 2026 is 3.8%.
If 3.8% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark a decrease relative to the previous month. However, it will also be above the trailing 12-month average of 3.0%.
The May 2026 consumer price index increased by 4.2% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 4.2%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 2 months, matched the median estimate in 3 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 40% of the time, matched the median estimate 20% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 40% of the time.
The median estimate of 3.8% is based on 4 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 3.75% to a high of 3.90%, for a spread of 15 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 41 bps and smaller than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 42 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 2.9%.
Tomorrow (July 14) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for June.
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