The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of November 2023 is 3.1%.
If 3.1% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the second consecutive month that the number has declined.
Last month (October 2023), the consumer price index increased by 3.2% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.3%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 3 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 50% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 35% of the time.
The median estimate of 3.1% is based on 10 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.99% to a high of 3.30%, for a spread of 31 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 55 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the high and low estimate 50 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 4.0%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for November tomorrow (December 12).
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