FactSet Insight - Commentary and research from our desk to yours

Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2023 is Projected to Rise 3.1% Year-Over-Year

Written by John Butters | Dec 11, 2023

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of November 2023 is 3.1%.

If 3.1% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the second consecutive month that the number has declined.

Last month (October 2023), the consumer price index increased by 3.2% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.3%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 3 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 50% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 35% of the time.

The median estimate of 3.1% is based on 10 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.99% to a high of 3.30%, for a spread of 31 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 55 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the high and low estimate 50 bps.

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 4.0%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for November tomorrow (December 12).

 

This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.