The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of October 2023 is 3.3%.
If 3.3% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the first decline in the consumer price index relative to the previous month since June 2023.
Last month (September 2023), the consumer price index increased by 3.7% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.6%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 3 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 50% of the time, matched the median estimate 17% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 3.3% is based on 6 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 3.20% to a high of 3.32%, for a spread of 12 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 55 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the high and low estimate 50 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 4.1%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for October tomorrow (November 14).
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