After hitting a new record-high value of 5,745.37 yesterday (September 26), where do industry analysts believe the price of the S&P 500 will go from here?
Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 9.4% over the next twelve months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of yesterday (September 26). The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the median target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On September 26, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 6,287.88, which was 9.4% above the closing price of 5,745.37.
At the sector level, the Energy (+20.5%), Communication Services (+13.5%), and Information Technology (+13.2%) sectors are expected to see the largest price increases, as these three sectors had the largest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on September 26. On the other hand, the Utilities (+3.2%) and Consumer Staples (+3.4%) sectors are expected to see the smallest price increases, as these two sectors had the smallest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on September 26.
At the company level, the ten stocks in the S&P 500 with the largest upside and downside differences between their median target price and closing price (on September 26) can be found below.
It is interesting to note that analysts underestimated the closing price of the index for this month one-year ago. On September 30, 2023, the bottom-up target price was 5,145.52. Nearly one year later (on September 26, 2024), the S&P 500 closing price was 5,745.37. Based on yesterday’s closing price, industry analysts underestimated the closing price at the end of September 2024 by more than 10% nearly one-year ago.
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