Since March 31, the price of the S&P 500 has increased by 7.4% (to 4411.59 from 4109.31). Where do industry analysts believe the price of the S&P 500 will go from here?
Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 9.3% over the next 12 months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of yesterday (July 6). The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the median target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On July 6, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 4823.78, which was 9.3% above the closing price of 4411.59.
At the sector level, the Energy (+23.0%) and Health Care (+15.6%) sectors are expected to see the largest price increases, as these two sectors had the largest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on July 6. On the other hand, the Consumer Discretionary (+3.8%) and Information Technology (+4.6%) sectors are expected to see the smallest price increases, as these two sectors had the smallest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on July 6.
At the company level, the 10 stocks in the S&P 500 with the largest upside and downside differences between their median target price and closing price (on July 6) can be found below.
Since bottoming at 4462.27 on November 9, 2022, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 has increased by 8.1% to 4823.78. Ten of the 11 sectors have seen an increase in their bottom-up target price since November 9, led by the Information Technology sector at 19.2% (to 3194.85 from 2679.83) and the Communication Services sector at 15.3% (to 236.25 from 204.90). On the other hand, the Energy sector is the only sector that has seen a decrease in its bottom-up target price over this time at -0.5% (to 746.42 from 750.38).
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