As we head further into summer, load growth resulting from AI demand continues to be a topic surrounded in uncertainty, particularly around its scale, location, and timing. Perhaps the only definitive conclusion the market has been able to draw is that load will rise. At the start of summer, President Trump issued four executive orders to better position nuclear power to address this expected load growth and establish reactor development within the Department of Defense’s purview. These orders effectively do four things:
As stated in the graphic above, one of the executive orders aims to increase the amount of nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050. This long-term goal of bringing nearly 300 GW of nuclear capacity online is daunting and will rely heavily on a streamlined reactor-design approval process, private research, investment, and regulatory changes—including defining what counts as a “qualified test reactor” later this month. Among the regulatory changes is a commitment to adopt “science-based radiation limits” and a reduction in headcount at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Between this reduction in regulatory burden and creating a pathway for reactor designs to be tested outside of Department of Energy facilities, it's plausible that the long-term goal of 400 GW by 2050 could be met. However, negative public sentiment and a nuclear fleet that has been hovering around 100 GW for the past 30 years will make that a challenge.
Setting aggressive long-term goals with the intent to change the rules binding them is one thing, but the short-term goals outlined in the executive orders under current policies are also aggressive. FactSet is currently tracking about 4.5 GW of planned nuclear reactors set to come online by around 2030, but that will not be enough to meet the goal of 5 GW of uprates and 10 new “large” reactors (assumed to be ~1GW each) to be under construction by 2030.
In the meantime, the Department of Defense will have its own aggressive timeline to develop a reactor at one of its installations. Specifically, a new reactor is to be built for the purposes of powering base operations and mission critical infrastructure by October 2028. With a three-year timeline, we can almost certainly assume that this reactor will be a known design; however, no guidance was given as to what types of installations would be considered, only that the reactor would be overseen by the Army. It can be reasonably assumed that the ability to reuse infrastructure from retired plants could help accelerate the development timeline—and given their density of military installations and availability of infrastructure, metropolitan regions like the DC Metro area, Los Angeles, and Southern New England are prime candidates for reactor development.
The recent executive orders issued by President Trump mark a significant shift in the approach to nuclear reactor development in the United States. By setting ambitious targets, encouraging private investment, and reducing regulatory barriers, these orders aim to position nuclear power as a key means to meeting growing energy demands driven by AI adoption. While the long-term goals are ambitious, the immediate challenges lie in meeting the short-term targets under the current regulatory framework and determining the impact of regulatory changes soon to come.
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