Given the recent weakness in the U.S. dollar, are S&P 500 companies with more international revenue exposure reporting higher (year-over-year) earnings and revenue growth for Q4 compared to S&P 500 companies with more domestic revenue exposure?
The answer is yes. FactSet Geographic Revenue Exposure data (based on the most recently reported fiscal year data for each company in the index) was used to answer this question. For this analysis, the index was divided into two groups: companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S. (more domestic exposure) and companies that generate more than 50% of sales outside the U.S. (more international exposure). Aggregate earnings and revenue growth rates were then calculated based on these two groups.
The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q4 2025 is 13.0%. For companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the blended earnings growth rate is 10.0%. For companies that generate more than 50% of sales outside the U.S., the blended earnings growth rate is 17.7%.
The blended revenue growth rate for the S&P 500 for Q4 2025 is 8.8%. For companies that generate more than 50% of sales inside the U.S., the blended revenue growth rate is 7.7%. For companies that generate more than 50% of sales outside the U.S., the blended revenue growth rate is 11.9%.
What is driving the outperformance of S&P 500 companies with higher international revenue exposure? At the company level, NVIDIA is the top contributor to both earnings and revenue growth for S&P 500 companies with more international revenue exposure. Excluding this company, the blended earnings and revenue growth rates for S&P 500 companies with more international exposure would fall to 12.0% and 9.9%, respectively.
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