Analysts expect the S&P 500 to report double-digit earnings growth for the 3rd straight year in CY 2026. The estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for CY 2026 is 15.0%, which is above the trailing 10-year average (annual) earnings growth rate of 8.6% (2015 – 2024). If 15.0% is the final number for the year, it will mark the 6th consecutive year of earnings growth and 3rd consecutive year of double-digit growth.
It is interesting to note that only two of the top five contributors to earnings growth for CY 2026 are “Magnificent 7” companies: NVIDIA and Meta Platforms. Overall, analysts expect the “Magnificent 7” companies will report earnings growth of 22.7% for CY 2026, which is slightly above the estimated earnings growth rate of 22.3% for CY 2025. On the other hand, analysts predict the other 493 companies will report earnings growth of 12.5% for CY 2026, which is above the estimated earnings growth rate of 9.4% for CY 2025.
All eleven sectors are predicted to report year-over-year earnings growth in CY 2026. Five of these sectors are projected to report double-digit growth: Information Technology, Materials, Industrials, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary.
In terms of revenues, the estimated (year-over-year) revenue growth rate for CY 2026 is 7.2%, which is above the trailing 10-year average (annual) revenue growth rate of 5.3% (2015 – 2024). Ten of the eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. On the other hand, the Energy sector is the only sector predicted to report a year-over-year decline in revenues for CY 2026.
The estimated net profit margin for the S&P 500 for 2026 is 13.9%, which is above the 10-year average (annual) net profit margin of 11.0%. If 13.9% is the actual net profit margin for the year, it will mark the highest (annual) net profit margin reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.
The FactSet Earnings Insight report will not be published on December 26 or January 2. The next edition of the report will be published on January 9.
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