At this early stage of the earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting mixed results for the fourth quarter. On the one hand, both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are below recent averages. Due to this performance compared to expectations and downward revisions to EPS estimates since December 31, the index is reporting slightly lower earnings today relative to the end of the quarter. On the other hand, the index is also reporting slightly higher earnings relative to last week. In addition, the index is still reporting year-over-year earnings growth for the 10th straight quarter.
Overall, 13% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q4 2025 to date. Of these companies, 75% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 78% and below the 10-year average of 76%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 5.3% above estimates, which is also below the 5-year average of 7.7% and below the 10-year average of 7.0%. Historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.
During the past week, positive EPS surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors were mainly responsible for the small increase in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period. Since December 31, downward revisions to EPS estimates for companies in the Health Care and Energy sectors, partially offset by positive EPS surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors, have been the largest contributors to the small decrease in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period.
As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of last week, but also reporting slightly lower earnings relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter is 8.2% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 8.0% last week and an earnings growth rate of 8.3% at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).
If 8.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.
Seven of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year growth, led by the Information Technology and Materials sectors. On the other hand, four sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary sectors.
In terms of revenues, 69% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 70% but above the 10-year average of 66%. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 0.6% above the estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 2.0% and below the 10-year average of 1.4%. Again, historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.
During the past week, upward and downward revisions to revenue estimates and positive and negative revenue surprises offset each other, resulting in no change to the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period. Since December 31, upward and downward revisions to revenue estimates and positive and negative revenue surprises have offset each other, resulting in no change to the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period.
As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the fourth quarter is 7.8% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 7.8% last week and a revenue growth rate of 7.8% at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).
If 7.8% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second-highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2022 (11.0%), trailing on the previous quarter (8.4%). It will also mark the 21st consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.
Ten sectors are reporting year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. On the other hand, the Energy sector is the only sector reporting a year-over-year decline in revenues.
For Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 11.2% and 14.5%, respectively. For CY 2026 analysts are projecting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 14.7%.
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 22.1, which is above the 5-year average (20.0) and above the 10-year average (18.8). This P/E ratio is also slightly above the forward P/E ratio of 22.0 recorded at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).
During the upcoming week, 103 S&P 500 companies (including 12 Dow 30 components) are scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter.
Q4 2025: Scorecard
Q4 2025: Growth
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