At this very early stage, the second quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is off to a weaker start than average compared to expectations. Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are below recent averages. Overall, the index is reporting lower earnings for the second quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative the end of the quarter. The index is also reporting its lowest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q4 2023 (4.0%).
Overall, 4% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 71% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 78% and below the 10-year average of 75%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 4.6% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 9.1% and below the 10-year average of 6.9%. Historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.
The index is reporting lower earnings for the second quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the second quarter is 4.8% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 5.0% last week and an earnings growth rate of 4.9% at the end of the second quarter (June 30).
If 4.8% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2023 (4.0%). However, it will also mark the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.
Six of the eleven sectors are reporting (or are projected to report) year-over-year growth, led by the Communication Services and Information Technology sectors. On the other hand, five sectors are reporting (or are predicted to report) a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy sector.
In terms of revenues, 81% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 70% and above the 10-year average of 64%. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 2.2% above the estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 2.1% and above the 10-year average of 1.4%. Again, historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.
The blended revenue growth rate for the second quarter is 4.2% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 4.2% last week and a revenue growth rate of 4.2% at the end of the second quarter (June 30).
If 4.2% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 19th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.
Ten sectors are reporting (or are projected to report) year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology sector. On the other hand, the Energy sector is the only sector predicted to report a year-over-year decline in revenues.
For Q3 2025 and Q4 2025, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 7.3% and 6.5%, respectively. For CY 2025 analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 9.0%.
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 22.3, which is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.4). This P/E ratio is also above the forward P/E ratio of 22.1 recorded at the end of the second quarter (June 30).
During the upcoming week, 42 S&P 500 companies (including 6 Dow 30 companies) are scheduled to report results for the second quarter.
Q2 2025: Scorecard
Q2 2025: Growth
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