At this early stage, the third quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is off to a mixed start relative to analyst expectations. While the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is above recent averages, the magnitude of earnings surprises is below recent averages. Overall, the index is reporting higher earnings for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative the end of the quarter. The index is also reporting year-over-year earnings growth for the ninth straight quarter.
Overall, 12% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2025 to date. Of these companies, 86% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 5.9% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 8.4% and below the 10-year average of 7.0%. Historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.
During the past week, positive EPS surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector were the largest contributor to the increase in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period. Since September 30, positive EPS surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector, partially offset by downward revisions to EPS estimates for companies in the Health Care sector, have been the largest contributor to the increase in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period.
As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the third quarter is 8.5% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 7.7% last week and an earnings growth rate of 7.9% at the end of the third quarter (September 30).
If 8.5% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the ninth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.
Seven of the eleven sectors are reporting (or are projected to report) year-over-year growth, led by Information Technology, Financials, Utilities, and Materials sectors. On the other hand, four sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy and Consumer Staples sectors.
In terms of revenues, 84% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 70% and above the 10-year average of 66%. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 1.5% above the estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 2.1% but above the 10-year average of 1.4%. Again, historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.
During the past week, positive revenue surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector were the largest contributor to the increase in the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period. Since September 30, positive revenue surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector and upward revisions to revenue estimates for companies in the Consumer Discretionary sector have been the largest contributors to the increase in the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period.
As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the third quarter is 6.6% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 6.4% last week and a revenue growth rate of 6.3% at the end of the third quarter (September 30).
If 6.6% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second-highest growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2022 (11.0%). It will also mark the 20th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.
Ten sectors are reporting (or are projected to report) year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology sector. On the other hand, the Energy sector is the only sector reporting a year-over-year decline in revenues.
For Q4 2025 through Q2 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 7.5%, 11.9%, and 12.8%, respectively. For CY 2025 analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 11.0%.
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 22.4, which is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.6). However, this P/E ratio is below the forward P/E ratio of 22.8 recorded at the end of the third quarter (September 30).
During the upcoming week, 90 S&P 500 companies (including 5 Dow 30 companies) are scheduled to report results for the third quarter.
Q3 2025: Scorecard
Q3 2025: Growth
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