With the Q3 earnings season for the S&P 500 starting next week, what are analysts expecting for earnings for the Energy and Utilities sectors?
Lower year-over-year oil prices are contributing to the year-over-year decrease in earnings for this sector, as the average price of oil in Q3 2025 ($64.97) was 15% below the average price for oil in Q3 2024 ($76.06).
At the sub-industry level, 3 of the 5 sub-industries in the sector are predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (-20%), Integrated Oil & Gas (-13%), and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (-4%). On the other hand, two sub-industries are projected to report year-over-year earnings growth: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (53%) and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (24%).
Looking ahead, analysts are predicting earnings growth for the sector starting in Q1 2026. Over the next four quarters (Q4 2025 to Q3 2026), analysts are projecting earnings growth rates of 0.0%, 3.4%, 19.0%, and 17.3%, respectively.
FactSet Energy Analyst Nathan Hasbrook provided commentary on key trends to watch for the Energy sector during this earnings season:
For U.S. producers, a tone of caution has defined the first three quarters of 2025, as operators navigate uncertainty surrounding near-term commodity prices. Several large E&P companies have publicly announced cost-cutting measures to proactively preserve profit margins amid volatile market conditions. West Texas Intermediate has softened to the low $60s per barrel. Although OPEC+ gradually increased output throughout the summer, prices have remained relatively stable, largely supported by geopolitical risk premiums. However, concerns about oversupply are mounting as global inventories build and demand growth slows. This dynamic is expected to exert further downward pressure on prices heading into late 2025 and early 2026.
On the natural gas side, Henry Hub prices have faced downward pressure throughout much of the injection season due to elevated storage levels. However, 2026 is expected to bring increased natural gas demand, driven by LNG exports and rising power burn from data centers. The timing of demand growth and the pace of supply response will be key in determining the level of volatility in the coming year.
FactSet Energy Analyst Katrina Abuls provided commentary on key trends to watch for LNG projects during this earnings season. (View more commentary from Katrina.)
Heading into winter, the continued development of projects currently under construction is driving expectations for structural demand growth entering 2026. Expect Cheniere to provide an update on the timing for Corpus Christi Stage III and ExxonMobil to provide guidance on the start-up of Golden Pass. After numerous projects made FID over the last two quarters, attention this quarter is likely to center on whether momentum can continue, or if concerns over a potential liquefaction capacity overbuild along the Gulf Coast will lead to a slowdown in announcements. Rio Grande Train 5, Lake Charles LNG, and Commonwealth LNG appear to be the closest to FID based on announced offtake agreements, although multiple other projects are competing to reach market.
With the Q3 earnings season for the S&P 500 starting next week, what are analysts expecting for earnings for the Utilities sector?
The Utilities sector is expected to report the second highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all eleven sectors at 17.1%. At the industry level, all 5 industries in the sector are projected to report year-over-year earnings growth: Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers (100%), Gas Utilities (16%), Electric Utilities (14%), Water Utilities (9%), and Multi-Utilities (9%).
At the company level, NRG Energy ($1.92 vs. -$3.79) and Vistra Corp. ($3.50 vs. $1.00) are expected to be the largest contributors to earnings growth for the sector. If these two companies were excluded, the estimated earnings growth rate for the Utilities sector would fall to 5.5% from 17.1%.
Looking ahead, analysts are predicting double-digit earnings growth for the sector for three of the next four quarters. Over the next four quarters (Q4 2025 to Q3 2026), analysts are projecting earnings growth rates of 11.4%, 7.2%, 10.7%, and 10.2%, respectively.
FactSet Senior Energy Analyst Trevor Fugita discussed key trends to watch related to the Utilities sector during this earnings season. (View more commentary from Trevor.)
The growing demand from data centers is starting to impact U.S. power markets. Through September, U.S. power demand was up 2.3% year-over-year largely due to significant growth in two data center hubs. Dominion Energy’s service territory in Viriginia has seen demand rise by 8.4%, while demand in ERCOT has increased by 5.5%. Notably, these increases occurred despite cooler temperatures, highlighting the influence of data centers. The expansion of renewables will help meet some of this increased demand, with the remaining load is likely to be supplied by natural gas.
At the same time, the Trump Administration has increased support for coal-fired generation. The Department of Energy is allocating $625 billion to bolster the coal industry, which includes $350 million for recommissioning and retrofitting coal-fired plants. Additionally, the Department of the Interior has opened 13.1 million acres of federal land for coal leasing and is aiming to streamline approvals for projects that would increase coal production. This support is expected to keep some of the 52.7 GW of coal-fired capacity currently slated for retirement by 2030 online, which could temper long-term growth of natural gas generation.
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