At this early stage, STOXX 600 Q2 earnings season is off to a solid start relative to expectations set at the end of Q1. Overall, ~27% of the index have reported results so far. Of these, ~50% have delivered EPS above estimates. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings 1.9% above estimates on a mean basis (2.1% on a median basis). This surprise factor sits below the long-term average of 5.9%, while the beat rate is modestly below the typical 54% level seen in a normal quarter. Reported EPS growth currently stands at +17.9% y/y on a mean basis and +20.3% on a median basis—well ahead of the +11.4% rate anticipated on 31 March.
Goldman Sachs noted that while the overall beat rate looks respectable, the upside has been relatively concentrated: only 26% of early reporters have beaten expectations by more than 5%, below the historical average of ~40%, with a meaningful share of the aggregate surprise driven by a handful of large names. Price reactions have been asymmetric, averaging +2% for beats and –3% for misses. BNP Paribas observed that the European beat/miss ratio currently stands at 1.5, near historic highs, with the median stock beating estimates by about 1.0%.
Energy has been the largest positive contributor to the overall earnings growth rate and continues to post the strongest numbers. Financials, Technology, and Industrials have also contributed positively, while Real Estate and Health Care remain the laggards. The majority of sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth.
On the revenue side the picture is more mixed. The sales beat rate is running at only around 23%, with an aggregate sales surprise of –0.2% (mean) and +0.2% (median). Reported sales growth stands at +9.2% (mean) and +9.3% (median). Energy, Technology and Industrials lead on the top line, while Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are the weakest.
The median company is outperforming the mean on EPS growth, pointing to relatively healthy breadth on the bottom line, while a few large negative outliers are weighing on the sales mean. The persistent gap between EPS growth and sales growth across several sectors confirms ongoing margin resilience and cost discipline—a pattern consistent with the longer recent history in which earnings have frequently grown faster than revenues.
Full-year 2026 EPS growth expectations remain constructive in the mid-teens, with Energy, Technology, and Basic Materials still expected to lead. The key question for the rest of the season is whether revenue momentum can improve enough to sustain these earnings trends, particularly if energy-price volatility linked to the Middle East persists. Next week, 93 companies in the STOXX 600 are expected to report earnings.
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