The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of April 2026 is 65,000.
If 65,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark a decrease relative to the previous month. However, it will be above the trailing 12-month average of 21,700.
March 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 compared to the median estimate for an increase of 60,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 4 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 8 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 43% of the time, matched the median estimate 2% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 55% of the time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.
The median estimate of 65,000 is based on 13 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 0 to a high of 95,000, for a spread of 95,000. This spread is larger than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 83,400.
The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of April 2026 is 4.3%.
If 4.3% is the actual unemployment rate, it will match the number from the previous month. It will also equal the trailing 12-month average of 4.3%.
The March 2026 unemployment rate was 4.3% compared to the median estimate of 4.4%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched the median estimate in 3 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 37% of the time, matched the median estimate 23% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 40% of the time.
The median estimate of 4.3% is based on 13 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 4.2% to a high of 4.4%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is below the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 40 bps.
Tomorrow (May 8), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total nonfarm payroll employment number and unemployment rate for April.
*Actuals reflect revised numbers
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