The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of October 2024 is 117,500.
If 117,500 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark the lowest number since April 2024. It will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 203,200.
September 2024 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 254,000 compared to the median estimate of 145,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 7 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. The actual number has exceeded the estimate by 15.0% on average during this time. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 67% of the time and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time. The actual number has exceeded the estimate by 5.1% on average during this time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.
The median estimate of 117,500 is based on 24 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 75,000 to a high of 180,000, for a spread of 105,000. This spread is higher than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 83,800.
The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of October 2024 is 4.1%.
If 4.1% is the actual unemployment rate, it will match the number from the previous month. However, it will also be above the trailing 12-month average of 3.9%.
The September 2024 unemployment rate was 4.1% compared to the median estimate of 4.2%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 28% of the time, matched the median estimate 13% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 58% of the time.
The median estimate of 4.1% is based on 22 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 4.1% to a high of 4.2%, for a spread of 10 bps. This spread is lower than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 21 bps.
Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total nonfarm payroll employment number and the unemployment rate for October.
*Actuals reflect revised numbers
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