Winter Storm Fern is expected to sweep across the United States over the coming weekend, with weather forecasts from the Rockies to the Northeast calling for multiple days of abnormally low temperatures and substantial ice and snow. This storm also brings with it memories of Winter Storm Uri, which affected tens of millions of people and much of the U.S. energy industry in 2021. While the effects of Uri led numerous states to improve their energy infrastructure, Winter Storm Fern has BTU Analytics closely watching the elements below.
Power
For the past few weeks, the U.S. power sector has largely been dominated by moderate temperatures leading to moderate loads and pricing. However, over the past week, winter weather alerts have been issued by several grid operators across the path of the storm. This includes the three largest ISOs (PJM, MISO, and ERCOT), which together accounted for approximately 46% of U.S. Lower 48 load in 2025. While the grid is expected to operate adequately during winter weather alerts, freezing temperatures will drive up electricity demand and potentially cause an energy emergency if infrastructure, such as natural gas power plants, wind turbines, or transmission lines, is unable to operate or becomes damaged during the storm. We will pay close attention to ERCOT in particular throughout the weekend, as it is about to see one of its largest winter tests since Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, when blackouts were needed to avoid a complete grid shutdown. Currently, ERCOT is forecasting to have adequate reserves throughout the storm, but the ISO will likely face its biggest test at 8 am CST on Monday, January 26th, when forecasted load peaks at what would be a new winter record of 84.5 GW and forecasted reserve capacity will be at only 6.3 GW.
Production
Beginning today, the majority of natural gas production will begin to be exposed to freeze‑off risk, including production in Appalachia, the Eagle Ford, Permian, SCOOP/STACK, and Haynesville production regions. In all, this equates to over 90 Bcf/d of natural gas production, respectively, at risk.
While the greatest operational vulnerability remains in the southern basins, where infrastructure is generally not hardened for prolonged subzero exposure without operational interruptions, there is still a possibility that freeze-off risk could extend into the Northeast and affect production in the Marcellus and Utica. However, based on the current storm track, the likelihood of significant impacts in the Northeast remains uncertain.
Dry natural-gas production across the Lower 48 has averaged 108.9 Bcf/d so far in January. During Winter Storm Uri, U.S. production was impacted for 14 consecutive days and bottomed out just under 70 Bcf/d on February 16, roughly a 20% decline. If Winter Storm Fern has a similar impact on production, we could see as much as 15–25 Bcf/d come offline for several days.
LNG
U.S. LNG export volumes will face significant risks as Winter Storm Fern makes its way eastward. Freeze-offs due to extremely cold temperatures have the potential to interrupt natural gas production, while increased stress on pipeline infrastructure and potential power outages could further restrict feedgas deliveries to LNG facilities. LNG feedgas deliveries were reduced by 55% the week following Winter Storm Uri when compared to the January 2021 averages. As more LNG export capacity has been added along the Gulf Coast, with current feedgas deliveries averaging 19.5 Bcf/d month-to-date, LNG facilities could experience impacts similar to those seen during Uri. If this occurs, U.S. LNG feedgas volumes could drop by 9 Bcf/d, with daily volumes potentially falling even lower.
Pricing
Given the above risks, it remains uncertain how high prices could climb if this storm unfolds as expected. During Winter Storm Uri, natural gas spot prices for Henry Hub surged to a record high, over $20/MMBtu, when extreme cold weather led to significant supply disruptions. With Henry Hub spot prices now above $8/MMBtu, spot LNG volumes could be at risk if domestic gas prices reach double digits while global prices stay unchanged. If this happens, higher U.S. prices could temporarily diminish the economic incentive to export LNG.
Summary
With the potential for production freeze-offs and increased stress on natural gas pipeline infrastructure, BTU Analytics will be closely monitoring how the energy sector handles the extreme cold from Winter Storm Fern and the resulting impacts on pricing and downstream demand. FactSet users can track daily natural gas production, demand, and LNG feedgas deliveries using our Daily Natural Gas Supply & Demand template in Excel, and Workstation users can access this and other templates through Office Integrations.
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