Upon entering his second term in office in January 2025, President Trump signed an executive order halting wind energy leasing off the coasts of the United States. That order may have been the beginning of the end for offshore wind in the U.S., as permitting troubles, supply chain issues, and other delays leading to large cost increases have already caused many projects to cancel or delay indefinitely. Some of the largest offshore wind projects are overseen by international developers, many of which are finding the political climate as well as the length of the process to be more and more unfavorable, putting even more planned projects at risk.
At the peak of offshore wind development in the U.S., almost 40 GW of offshore wind capacity was planning to come online by the end of 2030. However, despite the Biden administration’s offshore wind targets, several large offshore wind projects were cancelled or indefinitely delayed. Orsted’s 2.25 GW Ocean Wind was one of these projects, with the company citing supply chain issues and high interest rates as reasons for cancellation. These issues continue to persist, with additional complications arising given the Trump administration’s distaste for offshore wind as part of the solution for meeting increasing load growth. Projects already under construction will most likely make it through to full operation in the next couple of years, but planned projects that have not yet started construction are unlikely to fare as well.
Of the nearly 40 GW of capacity expected to be operational by 2030, 44% has already been cancelled by international developers. Projects that still remained under development hit another regulatory setback after the Trump administration removed tax credits available to offshore wind with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This might be the final blow, or at the very least a serious delay, for the 14.5 GW of projects yet to start construction.
This potential reduction of offshore wind projects comes at a time of increasing loads across the U.S. The graphic below shows the potential generation from the at-risk (yet to start construction) offshore wind projects compared to load forecasts for Massachusetts and ISO New England (ISO-NE). At several points during the year, the average hourly generation from these risked offshore projects would be enough to cover the net load of Massachusetts in its entirety. Taken in combination with the projects that are currently under construction, an average of 44% of the net load of ISO-NE could be covered by already planned offshore wind, reaching as high as 70% at points during the year.
Along with the changes in the IRA, continued struggles of offshore wind projects lead to a less favorable outlook for renewables capacity at a time when many states are predicting historic load growth. The more immediate consequences of this lost generation will mostly be felt by natural gas, increasing gas demand from the power sector and potentially further straining regional gas infrastructure. Additionally, the loss of offshore wind capacity removes any cushion for power pricing if natural gas or electric transmission infrastructure is not able to keep pace, leading to higher prices during an increasing number of large-load events.
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