The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of February 2025 is 4.0%.
If 4.0% is the actual unemployment rate, it will match the number from the previous month. It will also be slightly below the trailing 12-month average of 4.1%.
The January 2025 unemployment rate was 4.0% compared to the median estimate of 4.1%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 7 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 3 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 32% of the time, matched the median estimate 13% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 55% of the time.
The median estimate of 4.0% is based on 18 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 4.0% to a high of 4.1%, for a spread of 10 bps. This spread is below the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 18 bps.
The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of February 2025 is 160,000.
If 160,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark an increase relative to the previous month. However, it will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 168,300.
January 2025 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 143,000 compared to the median estimate of 167,500. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 6 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 6 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 57% of the time and fallen short of the median estimate 43% of the time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.
The median estimate of 160,000 is based on 21 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 120,000 to a high of 190,000, for a spread of 70,000. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 79,300.
Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the unemployment rate and total nonfarm payroll employment number for February.
*Actuals reflect revised numbers
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