Given concerns in the market about tariffs, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter?
The answer is no. During the month of July, analysts slightly increased EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q3 for all the companies in the index) increased by 0.1% (to $67.40 from $67.32) from June 30 to July 31.
In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first month of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 0.5%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.6%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has also been 1.7%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.9%.
The third quarter marks the first time analysts have increased EPS estimates in aggregate during the first month of a quarter since Q2 2024 (+0.7%).
At the sector level, five of the eleven sectors witnessed an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2025 from June 30 to July 31, led by the Energy (+3.8%) sector. On the other hand, six sectors recorded a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2025 during this period, led by the Health Care (-5.2%) sector.
Analysts also increased earnings estimates for the full year during the month. From June 30 through July 31, the CY 2025 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 0.6% (to $265.66 from $264.17).
This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.