Analysts Increasing EPS Estimates Slightly for S&P 500 Companies for Q3

Given concerns in the market about tariffs, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter?

The answer is no. During the month of July, analysts slightly increased EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q3 for all the companies in the index) increased by 0.1% (to $67.40 from $67.32) from June 30 to July 31.

In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first month of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 0.5%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.6%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has also been 1.7%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.9%.

The third quarter marks the first time analysts have increased EPS estimates in aggregate during the first month of a quarter since Q2 2024 (+0.7%).

At the sector level, five of the eleven sectors witnessed an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2025 from June 30 to July 31, led by the Energy (+3.8%) sector. On the other hand, six sectors recorded a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2025 during this period, led by the Health Care (-5.2%) sector.

Analysts also increased earnings estimates for the full year during the month. From June 30 through July 31, the CY 2025 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 0.6% (to $265.66 from $264.17). 

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