Given concerns in the market about higher oil prices, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter?
The answer is no. During the month of April, analysts increased EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter. The Q2 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q2 for all the companies in the index) increased by 2.1% (to $80.47 from $78.84) from March 31 to April 30.
In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first month of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 0.9%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.4%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has also been 1.7%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.9%.
The second quarter marks the largest increase in the bottom-EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter since Q2 2021 (+3.5%).
At the sector level, six of the eleven sectors witnessed an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2 2026 from March 31 to April 30, led by the Energy (+45.1%) sector. On the other hand, five sectors recorded a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2 2026 during this period, led by the Industrials (-2.9%) sector.
Analysts also increased earnings estimates for the full year during the month of April (again led by the Energy sector at 27%). From March 31 through April 30, the CY 2026 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 3.4% (to $331.23 from $320.34).
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