Analysts Making Largest Increases in Quarterly EPS Estimates for S&P 500 in 5 Years

Given concerns in the market about higher oil prices, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter?

The answer is no. During the month of April, analysts increased EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter. The Q2 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q2 for all the companies in the index) increased by 2.1% (to $80.47 from $78.84) from March 31 to April 30.

In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the first month of a quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 0.9%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.4%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has also been 1.7%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.9%.

The second quarter marks the largest increase in the bottom-EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter since Q2 2021 (+3.5%).

At the sector level, six of the eleven sectors witnessed an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2 2026 from March 31 to April 30, led by the Energy (+45.1%) sector. On the other hand, five sectors recorded a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2 2026 during this period, led by the Industrials (-2.9%) sector.

Analysts also increased earnings estimates for the full year during the month of April (again led by the Energy sector at 27%). From March 31 through April 30, the CY 2026 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 3.4% (to $331.23 from $320.34).

This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.