The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of April 2024 is 3.4%.
If 3.4% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the first sequential decrease in the number since January 2024 (3.1%).
Last month (March 2024), the consumer price index increased by 3.5% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.4%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 6 months, matched the median estimate in 1 month, and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 53% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 32% of the time.
The median estimate of 3.4% is based on 11 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 3.30% to a high of 3.50%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is lower than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 42 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 49 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.6%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for April tomorrow (May 15).
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