Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2024 is Projected to Rise 3.4% Year-Over-Year

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of April 2024 is 3.4%.

If 3.4% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the first sequential decrease in the number since January 2024 (3.1%).

Last month (March 2024), the consumer price index increased by 3.5% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.4%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 6 months, matched the median estimate in 1 month, and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 53% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 32% of the time.

The median estimate of 3.4% is based on 11 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 3.30% to a high of 3.50%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is lower than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 42 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 49 bps.

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.6%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for April tomorrow (May 15).

This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.