The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of September 2024 is 2.3%.
If 2.3% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the smallest increase in the number since February 2021 (1.7%).
The August 2024 consumer price index increased by 2.5% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 2.6%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. It is interesting to note that actual CPI number has been below the estimate over the past four months (May 2024 through August 2024). Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time.
The median estimate of 2.3% is based on 17 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.20% to a high of 2.40%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 27 bps and smaller than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 49 bps.
The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.2%.
Tomorrow (October 10) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for September.
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