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Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2024 is Projected to Rise 2.3% Year-Over-Year

Economics

By John Butters  |  October 9, 2024

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of September 2024 is 2.3%.

If 2.3% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the smallest increase in the number since February 2021 (1.7%).

The August 2024 consumer price index increased by 2.5% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 2.6%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. It is interesting to note that actual CPI number has been below the estimate over the past four months (May 2024 through August 2024). Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 15% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time.

The median estimate of 2.3% is based on 17 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.20% to a high of 2.40%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 27 bps and smaller than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 49 bps.

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.2%.

Tomorrow (October 10) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for September.

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This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.

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John Butters

Vice President, Senior Earnings Analyst

Mr. John Butters is Vice President and Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet. His weekly research report, “Earnings Insight,” provides analysis and commentary on trends in corporate earnings data for the S&P 500 including revisions to estimates, year-over-year growth, performance relative to expectations, and valuations. He is a widely used source for the media and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, and the Business News Network. In addition, he has been cited by numerous print and online publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The New York Times, MarketWatch, and Yahoo! Finance. Mr. Butters has over 15 years of experience in the financial services industry. Prior to FactSet in January 2011, he worked for more than 10 years at Thomson Reuters (Thomson Financial), most recently as Director of U.S. Earnings Research (2007-2010).

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The information contained in this article is not investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.