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The race to power AI is bringing power demand in the United States to new heights. As data center buildout accelerates, questions about how the grid will reliably meet this growing load over the long term are growing louder. However, this pressure is not just a future concern, as load growth is already showing up in early 2026 data, raising questions about how summer demand will be met as temperatures begin to rise. The following Energy Market Insight examines this load growth and what new generation capacity has come online to meet the growing demand.
Load in PJM’s Dominion Zone
Home to Data Center Alley, the Dominion Zone in PJM has seen some of the largest load increases in the entire United States. From 2019 to 2025, total load serviced by the utility increased by 31.8%. This shows no signs of slowing down either, as the continued buildout of data centers has contributed to peak load on the Dominion system being consistently higher in 2026 compared to 2025 when adjusted for the daily average temperature. Even during days when the average temperature is between 50 and 70 degrees Fahrenheit, when load is typically lowest in Dominion, daily peak loads are still up by nearly 1 GW when comparing the start of 2026 to the start of 2025.
Peak load in the rest of the U.S.
While the Dominion Zone offers a striking example, this load trend is being seen across the nation. During days with moderate temperatures (45–65 degrees Fahrenheit), all seven ISOs have seen average peak loads increase year-over-year. Also, all ISOs except CAISO have seen peak load increase during these temperatures by nearly 10% or greater, with ERCOT showcasing the largest increase of 28.3%. These changes are notable because they reflect overall increases to load on the system itself rather than potentially being explained by changes in the weather, making them a strong indicator of true underlying load growth. As shown below, these changes to load during mild weather may suggest even higher loads during the summer months if temperatures are higher than last year.
What about power supply?
More generation will be needed to service the potentially higher loads expected this summer, however this need could be met either by increasing capacity factors for existing generation or by installing incremental generation. Some ISOs have had more success installing new generation since last summer. ERCOT, for example, has added the most by far at 16.1 GW, which accounts for 46% of installed generation nationwide since October 2025. The ISO also has an additional 9.3 GW under construction that may be able to come online before the end of this summer to help meet potentially record levels of demand. Beyond ERCOT, two large-scale wind projects stand out as notable additions. SunZia, a 3.5 GW wind project in New Mexico that connects into CAISO, and Vineyard Wind, an 804 MW project off the coast of Massachusetts, have already begun sending power to the grid and are planning to be fully operational later this year. These large-scale projects should help meet potential load increases in their respective regions.
Going forward
The U.S. grid is already beginning to feel the pressure of rapidly rising load. As temperatures climb this summer, we could very well see new load records set throughout the U.S. New capacity additions will help in some areas of the country, but other areas with limited additions will have to be more reliant on their existing fleet or lean on the fleet of their neighbors to meet increasing demands.
Be sure to register for FactSet’s webinar covering our Summer 2026 power outlook. Also, be on the lookout for more Energy Market Insights as we continue to explore how the buildout of data centers is impacting power markets.
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