The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of August 2025 is 80,000.
If 80,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark an increase relative to the previous month. However, it will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 128,000.
July 2025 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 73,000 compared to the median estimate of 110,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 4 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 8 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 52% of the time and fallen short of the median estimate 48% of the time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.
The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of August 2025 is 4.2%.
If 4.2% is the actual unemployment rate, it will match the number from the previous month. However, it will also be above the trailing 12-month average of 4.1%.
The July 2025 unemployment rate was 4.2% compared to the median estimate of 4.2%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 2 months, matched the median estimate in 6 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 32% of the time, matched the median estimate 20% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 48% of the time.
Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total nonfarm payroll employment number and unemployment rate for August.
*Actuals reflect revised numbers
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