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Total Nonfarm Payrolls for August 2025 Are Projected to Rise By 80,000

Economics

By John Butters  |  September 4, 2025

The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of August 2025 is 80,000.

If 80,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark an increase relative to the previous month. However, it will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 128,000.

July 2025 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 73,000 compared to the median estimate of 110,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 4 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 8 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 52% of the time and fallen short of the median estimate 48% of the time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.

The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of August 2025 is 4.2%.

If 4.2% is the actual unemployment rate, it will match the number from the previous month. However, it will also be above the trailing 12-month average of 4.1%.

The July 2025 unemployment rate was 4.2% compared to the median estimate of 4.2%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 2 months, matched the median estimate in 6 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 32% of the time, matched the median estimate 20% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 48% of the time.

Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total nonfarm payroll employment number and unemployment rate for August.

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 *Actuals reflect revised numbers 

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This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.

John Butters

Vice President, Senior Earnings Analyst

Mr. John Butters is Vice President and Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet. His weekly research report, “Earnings Insight,” provides analysis and commentary on trends in corporate earnings data for the S&P 500 including revisions to estimates, year-over-year growth, performance relative to expectations, and valuations. He is a widely used source for the media and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, and the Business News Network. In addition, he has been cited by numerous print and online publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The New York Times, MarketWatch, and Yahoo! Finance. Mr. Butters has over 15 years of experience in the financial services industry. Prior to FactSet in January 2011, he worked for more than 10 years at Thomson Reuters (Thomson Financial), most recently as Director of U.S. Earnings Research (2007-2010).

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The information contained in this article is not investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.