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Using Genscape's patented analytics, the TESLA Insights DataFeed reveals detailed information regarding Tesla’s production capabilities. Tesla company valuations are based heavily on whether or not mass production Model 3 electric cars will be delivered at scale and in a profitable way. In Elon Musk’s own words, “the competitive strength of Tesla long term is not the car, it is the factory." Genscape’s data gives a timely quantitative read of operations and output at Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory as well as the Fremont factory.
Introduce pre-announcement data into fundamental models
The TESLA Insights DataFeed currently covers a single company, providing intra-period updates to several key metrics used to measure Tesla’s performance including:
Near real-time data of Gigafactory power consumption, with history back to May 2017 (Figure 1)
Count of Model 3 and Semi battery deliveries from Tesla’s Gigafactory to their Fremont plant, with history back to February 2017 (see Figure 2)
Finished Tesla vehicle counts leaving the Fremont plant, including sedans (Model 3 and S) and SUVs (Model X), with history back to December 2017 (see Figures 3 and 4)
Updates are published weekly; data frequency is daily for battery and vehicle counts and intraday for the Gigafactory power consumption.
Figure 1: Tesla Gigafactory Power Consumption (MW)
Figure 2: Model 3 Battery Shipments
Figure 3: Daily Fremont Model 3 and S Counts
Figure 4: Daily Fremont SUV Counts
TESLA insights allows you to:
Gain clarity into the Tesla Model 3 ramp up on a weekly basis and ahead of quarterly reports
Gain insight into Gigafactory operations to inform portfolio management strategies
Identify trends and inflection points to understand indicators of Tesla's financial health
These unique differentiators can help provide valuable pre-earnings release insights, especially when viewed in conjunction with company-issued guidance and analyst estimates (explored further below in the Example Use Case section). These insights extend into the fixed income realm as well, enabling users to understand Tesla’s ability to fulfill its debt obligations, as shown in figure 5. This is made possible through FactSet’s Debt Capital Structure DataFeed, providing a full list of security linked fixed income instruments, as well as the debt obligations of individual subsidiaries (such as SolarCity Corp vs. Tesla Motors Inc.).
Figure 5: Long-Term Debt by Maturity Summary
Example Use Case
The value that TESLA insights data provides can help to instill confidence in your positions. In Figure 6, you can see operational issues become apparent in the Gigafactory power usage. Tesla stock prices soon reflected this, dropping from above $380/share to below $350/share. The trends of this data can help to support/refute issued guidance and estimates prior to quarterly reporting.
In the quarterly filing for Q3 2017, Tesla reported an EPS of (3.70) vs. the FactSet Estimates Consensus mean value of (2.99), resulting in a surprise of (23.8%). In the Q3 2017 earnings call, Elon Musk described which level of hell the Gigafactory operational issues were in; below is an excerpt from FactSet’s Events and Transcripts DataFeed:
“…Well, we're in level 9. We're now in level 8 and I think we're close to exiting level 8. I thought we could probably be more like a level 7 by now…”
This caused further share price declines. Shortly after Thanksgiving (which Gigafactory workers were publicly stated to have worked through, a fact confirmed by this power data), a ramp up was observed, which was subsequently priced into Tesla’s share price. Figure 7 shows these two periods in more detail, highlighting the trends of both Gigafactory power consumption and stock price movement.
Figure 6: Gigafactory Operational Impact on Tesla Stock Price
Figure 7: Expanded View of Operational Issues and Ramp Up Period
This information, as well as the other production metrics collected by Genscape, could point to missed production numbers or possible future issues with one of Tesla’s reported metrics. For more information on Genscape’s data, including case studies, white papers, and additional research, please visit its provider page on the Open:FactSet Marketplace. If you have any questions please contact us at OFSupport@factset.com.