So far, 2025 is shaping up to be an exciting year for LNG, as two facilities, Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage III, hit major milestones in December, and feedgas deliveries reached a new record high in January. With President Trump following through on his promise to boost U.S. LNG, 2025 could see a surge in movement, pushing proposed facilities forward and increasing the likelihood for more North American facilities to reach market.
New Facilities
Phase 1 of Plaquemines LNG is quickly ramping, as the first six blocks of Plaquemines LNG have FERC approval to introduce hazardous fluids, and feedgas deliveries have already surpassed 1.3 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, Corpus Christi Stage III achieved first LNG on December 30th, and Cheniere expects Train 1 of the project to reach “substantial completion” at the end of 1Q25 with production anticipated to ramp soon thereafter. These facilities mark the start of a new era in the U.S. LNG industry, as they are the first new LNG capacity to reach the market since Calcasieu Pass in 2021. Looking to the end of 2025, the 2.05-Bcf/d Golden Pass LNG project is expected to start up in December, according to the guidance given in Exxon’s 3Q24 earnings call. However, the company noted there is risk that the project could slip into early 2026. The project has now been delayed by more than a year from its original 2024 ISD.
DOE Non-FTA Approvals
President Trump made good on his promise to lift the DOE’s non-FTA pause, which had been in place since January 2024, on “Day One” of his new term. As a result, multiple proposed U.S. projects, including Venture Global’s CP2 LNG facility, Commonwealth LNG, Rio Grande Phase 2, Port Arthur Phase 2, and Lake Charles LNG, may be able to make significant strides this year toward reaching the market. Additionally, the new administration provides a tailwind for facilities that already have non-FTA approvals that are set to expire within the next four years, such as Cameron LNG Phase 2, Woodside Louisiana LNG, and Texas LNG. Collectively, these eight facilities total around 15 Bcf/d of nameplate capacity and would nearly double current U.S. LNG capacity. Although not necessary to move forward with an LNG project, DOE non-FTA authorization is important for new LNG projects, as it allows access to critical demand centers, making it more attractive for securing offtakers and financing and ultimately paving a path for a facility to achieve a positive FID.
North American LNG
Beyond the U.S., the first train of LNG Canada, a 1.8-Bcf/d facility, is expected to be fully in service in mid-2025. A significant milestone for the Canadian LNG industry, the project will be the first major export project in the country. Additionally, Western LNG, with the Nisga’a Nation and Rockies LNG, is looking to achieve a positive FID on its Ksi Lisims LNG project in 2025, a proposed 1.5-Bcf/d facility, after they received a significant investment from Blackstone Energy Transition Partners. The investment supports the remaining development for Ksi Lisims LNG and the corresponding pipeline project, the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission. BTU Analytics had previously identified the growing Canadian LNG industry as a risk to U.S. gas markets in the August 2024 edition of the Gas Basis Outlook. Meanwhile, in Mexico, Energía Costa Azul LNG Phase 1 is expected to begin commissioning at the end of 2025, as Sempra stated in its 3Q24 earnings that commercial operations are slated to begin in the spring of 2026.
Between five new projects, North American LNG demand is expected to grow substantially in 2025. After a quiet year in 2024, 2025 will also likely see a surge in progress on proposed facilities, as the Trump administration will likely continue to lessen barriers to obtaining essential approvals for various projects. More information on these facilities and BTU Analytics’ LNG forecast can be found in the Henry Hub Outlook.
This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.
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