Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2024 is Projected to Rise 2.7% Year-Over-Year

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of November 2024 is 2.7%.

If 2.7% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the second consecutive month the number has increased. However, it will still be below the trailing 12-month average of 3.0%.

The October 2024 consumer price index increased by 2.6% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 2.6%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched the median estimate in 3 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 50% of the time, matched the median estimate 18% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 32% of the time.

The median estimate of 2.7% is based on 11 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.60% to a high of 2.70%, for a spread of 10 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 25 bps and smaller than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 49 bps.

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.3%.

Tomorrow (December 11) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for November.

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