Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2024 is Projected to Rise 2.6% Year-Over-Year

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of October 2024 is 2.6%.

If 2.6% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark the first month-over-month increase in the number since March 2024. The number has declined for six straight months (April 2024 through September 2024).

The September 2024 consumer price index increased by 2.4% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 2.3%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 52% of the time, matched the median estimate 17% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 32% of the time.

The median estimate of 2.6% is based on 12 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.40% to a high of 2.60%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 26 bps and smaller than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 49 bps.

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.3%.

Tomorrow (November 13) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for October.

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