Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September 2023 is Projected to Rise 3.6% Year-Over-Year

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of September 2023 is 3.6%.

If 3.6% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will mark a slight decrease in the number after increasing (month-over-month) for the past two months.

Last month (August 2023), the consumer price index increased by 3.7% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.6%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 3 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 48% of the time, matched the median estimate 17% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 35% of the time.

The median estimate of 3.6% is based on 15 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 3.56% to a high of 3.90%, for a spread of 34 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 55 bps and lower than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the high and low estimate 50 bps.

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 4.1%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for September tomorrow (October 12).

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