Green Hydrogen in Europe: Who Stands to Benefit from Nuclear?

Earlier this month, the EU introduced AccelerateEU, an initiative that aims to reduce the EU’s reliance on fossil fuels and increase domestic renewable energy generation and electrification. As part of the package, the European Commission (EC) is proposing to review the production criteria for green hydrogen, which includes rules on how projects can procure power. During this review, the EC is considering expanding the list of approved energy sources to include nuclear power. In this Insight, we will look at how renewable energy generation and green hydrogen projects are currently distributed throughout Europe and explore which countries could benefit most if nuclear power is approved as an energy source for green hydrogen.

RFNBO Criteria Poses Hurdles for Green Hydrogen Development

In the EU, green hydrogen is largely considered a Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origin (RFNBO) but must meet certain production criteria to receive RFNBO certification. Under the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED), RFNBOs must comprise at least 1% of energy supplied to the transport sector and 42% of hydrogen used in industry by 2030. Therefore, producers that want to take advantage of the RED mandates must obtain RFNBO certification. To qualify, projects must be powered by renewable energy that is sourced directly from a renewable energy project or from the grid. If using grid power, projects must either prove that their electricity comes from renewable sources that meet additionality, temporal, and geographic criteria, or show that the average share of renewable electricity on the grid exceeds 90% in the previous calendar year. While the latter option is likely the easiest option for most projects, this strategy can only be used in areas meeting the 90% threshold.

Renewable Generation vs. Green Hydrogen Project Pipelines in Europe

The average share of renewable generation supplied to the grid in 2025 provides a first-order view of how close European countries come to meeting the RFNBO grid limit. Norway, Luxembourg, and Denmark lead the way with at least 90% renewable energy generation, but these countries do not have large pipelines of planned green hydrogen projects. Meanwhile Spain, the Netherlands, and Germany have the largest power demand from planned green hydrogen projects, but their average share of renewables peaks at 60%.

Which Countries Benefit from Nuclear?

If the EU were to include nuclear energy as an approved power source for green hydrogen, then countries with early-stage green hydrogen projects and existing nuclear power plants would stand to benefit the most. In particular, France, Finland, and Sweden would have exceeded an average 90% renewable energy generation in 2025 if nuclear were counted. Spain, the country with the most ambitious project pipeline, would only reach 78% and would need to procure more renewable generation to meet the RFNBO grid threshold.

Takeaways

The war in Iran has renewed the EU’s desire for domestic renewable energy production and put a spotlight on alternative fuels like green hydrogen. While the industry has been slow to develop in Europe, the potential inclusion of nuclear energy as a power source could help alleviate the issue of procuring renewable energy for RFNBO certification. However, if nuclear energy were approved, it would be interesting to see whether green hydrogen projects procure nuclear power via excess capacity, existing generation, or new builds. Plant retirements are another factor to consider, as they could affect the availability of nuclear power for these projects.

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