Haynesville’s Edge: Fueling the Lower 48

Amid growing domestic energy demand, increasing U.S. gas production is more crucial than ever. The Haynesville Shale, one of the two largest domestic shale gas plays, and specifically the Northwest Louisiana (NWLA) side of the play, where over 60% of Haynesville production occurs, is expected to address this need. With Northeast production growth forecasted to be constrained by local demand and gas takeaway through the end of the decade, the Haynesville is considered the marginal gas-directed basin and is required to balance the Lower 48 (L48) market.

NWLA experienced substantial gross gas production growth from 2019 through 2023, adding approximately 3.5 Bcf/d, but declined in 2024 as benchmark gas prices fell to shut-in economics. BTU Analytics expects the play to flip back to growth this year and continue, forecasting for year-over-year growth to average 10.8% from 2025 through 2030. As shown in the chart below, more than half, and a growing share in recent years, of NWLA gas production has come from Aethon Energy, Comstock, and Expand Energy. Together, their share of production grew from 60% in 2010 to 84% in 2020 and now sits comfortably at 75%. Therefore, understanding how these three operators might perform in the coming years will give insight into NWLA production going forward.

The below map reveals where the core operators are focusing their NWLA activity. Considering the activity of the three operators back to 2010, Aethon Energy has the smallest spread of wells, which is concentrated in the core of the play and spreads east into Bienville Parish. Comstock on the other hand is spread horizontally across the middle of the region and along the western border of the state. Expand Energy, formerly Chesapeake Energy Corporation and Southwestern Energy Company, has focused activity across the southern half of the region.

Looking forward, as BTU Analytics expects growth through the end of the decade, it is important to examine if there is ample pipeline capacity to support the expected production growth. The Haynesville region is expecting two greenfield natural gas projects to be placed into service by the end of 2025. BTU Analytics expects Momentum Midstream’s New Generation Gas Gathering (NG3) to come online in June 2025, which is poised to add 1.7 Bcf/d with the potential to expand an additional 0.5 Bcf/d in the future. Williams’ Louisiana Energy Gateway (LEG) is expected to come online in July 2025 and add 1.8 Bcf/d of additional capacity.

Both originating in the core of the Haynesville, these projects will move gas from NWLA to further south in Louisiana to the Gulf Coast. The chart below shows pipeline capacity will outpace dry-gas production growth in the Haynesville through 2028, but 2029 and 2030 will need additional pipeline infrastructure to the LA coast.

Ultimately, the Lower 48's reliance on the Haynesville is pivotal for balancing the gas market, and BTU Analytics expects NWLA production growth through the end of the decade. Historical activity in NWLA not only supports the feasibility of the basin to meet forecasted short-term demand but underscores the dominance of the three key operators discussed above, which collectively account for over half of the region's gas production and whose wells are yielding progressively better results. Be sure to check back in for future Energy Market Insights covering natural gas production and more.

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