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How Much Did Analysts Cut EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies for Q4?

Earnings

By John Butters  |  January 6, 2025

With the fourth quarter finished, how much did analysts lower EPS estimates for S&P 500 companies for the fourth quarter?

The Q4 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q4 for all the companies in the index) decreased by 2.7% (to $61.88 from $63.60) from September 30 to December 31. This percentage is smaller than the 5-year average of 3.4%.

At the sector level, nine of the eleven sectors witnessed a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q4 2024 from September 30 to December 31, led by the Energy (-14.1%) and Materials (-12.5%) sectors. On the other hand, the Communication Services (+4.1%) sector recorded the largest increase in its bottom-up EPS estimate for Q4 2024 of all eleven sectors during this period.

Analysts also lowered EPS estimates for CY 2025 during this period. The CY 2025 bottom-up EPS estimate declined by 0.9% (to $274.07 from $276.67) from September 30 to December 31.

It is interesting to note that while the Q4 EPS estimate declined by 2.7% during the quarter, the price of the index increased by 2.1% (to 5,881.63 from 5,762.48) during this period.

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This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.

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John Butters

Vice President, Senior Earnings Analyst

Mr. John Butters is Vice President and Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet. His weekly research report, “Earnings Insight,” provides analysis and commentary on trends in corporate earnings data for the S&P 500 including revisions to estimates, year-over-year growth, performance relative to expectations, and valuations. He is a widely used source for the media and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, and the Business News Network. In addition, he has been cited by numerous print and online publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The New York Times, MarketWatch, and Yahoo! Finance. Mr. Butters has over 15 years of experience in the financial services industry. Prior to FactSet in January 2011, he worked for more than 10 years at Thomson Reuters (Thomson Financial), most recently as Director of U.S. Earnings Research (2007-2010).

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The information contained in this article is not investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.