Industry Analysts Project 20% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months

After closing near a record-high value earlier this week, where do industry analysts believe the price of the S&P 500 will go from here?

Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 20.4% over the next twelve months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of yesterday (September 24). The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the median target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On September 24, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 9,275.04, which was 20.4% above the closing price of 7,704.13.

At the sector level, all 11 sectors are predicted to see a price increase of more than 10%. The Utilities (+28.0%), Consumer Discretionary (+26.0%), and Industrials (+25.1%) sectors are expected to see the largest price increases, as these sectors had the largest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on September 24. On the other hand, the Energy (+10.6%) and Health Care (+11.7%) sectors are expected to see the smallest price increases, as these sectors had the smallest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on September 24.

At the company level, the ten stocks in the S&P 500 (with a minimum of 3 target prices) with the largest upside and downside differences between their median target price and closing price (on September 24) can be found below and on page 7 of the Earnings Insight report.

Since June 30, the bottom-target price for the S&P 500 has increased by 3.6% (to 9,275.04 from 8,950.58). At the sector level, 8 of 11 sectors have seen an increase in their bottom-up target price over this period, led by the Health Care (+6.8%), Financials (+6.0%), and Information Technology (+5.9%) sectors. On the other hand, 3 of 11 sectors have recorded a decline in their bottom-up target price over this period, led by the Communication Services (-3.3%) and Utilities (-1.9%) sectors.

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