Industry Analysts Project 21% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months

After closing at a record-high value a few weeks ago, where do industry analysts believe the price of the S&P 500 will go from here?

Industry analysts in aggregate predict the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 21.2% over the next twelve months. This percentage is based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of yesterday (June 25). The bottom-up target price is calculated by aggregating the median target price estimates (based on company-level estimates submitted by industry analysts) for all the companies in the index. On June 25, the bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 was 8,918.27, which was 21.2% above the closing price of 7,357.49.

At the sector level, all 11 sectors are predicted to see a price increase of 10% or more. The Communication Services (+32.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+26.6%), and Information Technology (+26.5%) sectors are expected to see the largest price increases, as these sectors had the largest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on June 25. On the other hand, the Industrials (+10.2%) and Real Estate (+10.5%) sectors are expected to see the smallest price increases, as these sectors had the smallest upside differences between the bottom-up target price and the closing price on June 25.

At the company level, the ten stocks in the S&P 500 (with a minimum of 3 target prices) with the largest upside and downside differences between their median target price and closing price (on June 25) can be found below.

Since March 31, the bottom-target price for the S&P 500 has increased by 7.0% (to 8,918.27 from 8,333.01). At the sector level, 8 of 11 sectors have seen an increase in their bottom-up target price over this period, led by the Information Technology (+15.4%) and Energy (+9.1%) sectors. On the other hand, 3 of 11 sectors have recorded a decline in their bottom-up target price over this period, led by the Health Care (-1.4%) and Financials (-1.3%) sectors. 

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